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Global Warming Junk Science: The IPCC Hockey Stick
A New Low in Climate Science - 4
Exhibit 10 -
east-central Idaho, USA
A tree ring study by F.
Biondi et al, [1]
used an 858-year proxy record of summer temperature for east-central Idaho.
Although, as stated before, tree rings are not a reliable measure of annual
temperature, this particular set was not included in Mann's study. Biondi
found periods of `extreme cooling' around AD 1300, 1340, 1460 and after AD
1600. This confirms the findings of other studies in previous exhibits where
there appears to have been two little ice ages, one minor one during the
Sporer Minimum on the sun, and the second, the main Little Ice Age, during
the sun's Maunder Minimum during the 1600s AD.
The authors also state -
"Neither instrumental nor proxy
data in Idaho northeast valleys show unusual warming during the twentieth
century." This also challenges the `toe' of the
`Hockey Stick' that presents the 20th century as being both unprecedented
and warming rapidly. But the statement is confirmed from this long-term
rural temperature record from Ashton in eastern Idaho
(Fig.13)

Fig.13 -
Annual Mean Temperature at Ashton, Idaho
There has been
little change at Ashton in 100 years, fully justifying the claim made by
Biondi et al.
Exhibit 11 -
Argentina
Published multi-proxy studies
by Villalba in 1994 [30]
and Cioccale in 1999
[2] confirm the existence of the
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in Argentina.
In the central regions of
Argentina, there was a warm climate from 600 AD up to around 1320 AD,
allowing human populations to settle and cultivate higher altitude areas,
matching the Medieval Warm Period. After 1320, two cold `pulses' were noted.
During the second pulse (the
main phase of the Little Ice Age), glaciers in
the southern Andes began to advance and residents abandoned settlements in
the higher altitudes. According to Cioccale, "Both cold pulses can be related to the Sporer and Maunder Minimums
respectively". Again the sun
was held responsible for these events.
Argentina
completes a full circle of the deep southern hemisphere, from Argentina east
to South Africa and on to Tasmania. Thus our two climate events circled the
mid-latitudes of the southern hemisphere in addition to their loud presence
in the northern hemisphere.
Exhibit 12 -
California, USA
In a 1993 study
[25], tree-ring data
from subalpine conifers in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, were
used to reconstruct temperature and precipitation back to A.D. 800. The
summer temperature reconstruction showed a period with temperatures
exceeding late 20th-century values from AD 1100 to 1375, corresponding to
the Medieval Warm Period. There was also a period of cold temperatures from
AD 1450 to 1850, at the time of the Little Ice Age.
Exhibit 13 -
Western Indian Ocean Islands
Dullo et al
[7] studied long coral
cores from reefs in La Réunion, Mayotte and Madagascar. Oxygen isotope data
were calibrated with local instrumental data to derive a proxy for
historical sea surface temperature. The longest record from Madagascar dated
back to AD 1640 and clearly recorded the impact of the Little Ice Age. The
data also revealed the imprint of the El Niño Southern Oscillation with a 3
to 5 year cycle, similar to that of today.
Exhibit 14 - Sea
Levels
The current predictions about
rising sea levels are predicated on the assumption that the 20th century has
seen a warming of +0.7°C with further warming expected by the models. On the
basis of this claimed warming, the IPCC estimated sea levels had already
risen 10 to 25 cm over the last 100 years. Since this estimate is based
largely on modelling and since the 20th century warming is much less than
claimed due to errors in station data
(urbanisation etc.), 20th century sea
levels have seen little real rise. [5].
However, the
notion that sea levels should rise consequent upon a significant warming, or
fall when cooling occurs, due to thermal expansion and contraction of the
ocean mass is a reasonably sound one. This goes with some reservations about
changing ice accumulation at the polar regions also affecting the sea
levels.
That said, sea
level does provide a proxy to determine the existence of the Medieval Warm
Period, as a global warming of that magnitude should cause some sea level
rise. Similarly, the Little Ice Age should cause sea levels to fall.
A study of sea level over the
last 1,400 years by van de Plassche and van der Borg of Free University
Amsterdam, and Utrecht University, Netherlands [28]
determined a mean high water curve for Hammock River marsh, Clinton,
Connecticut, USA. This was based on marsh elevation calculated from
foraminiferal analysis of a 6 ft long peat core.
The changes in
sea level was validated against similar trends in sea level during the past
1400 years from salt marshes 10 miles further west. On the basis of the
Clinton mean-high water data, they concluded that real sea level oscillated
centimetres to decimetres on a century time scale over the past 1400 yr. The
idea that sea level was unchanging prior to the 20th century was therefore
shown to be false. They concluded -
"On the basis
of the Clinton mean-high water curve, we conclude that real sea level
oscillated centimeters to decimeters on a century time scale over the past
1400 yr, was 25±25 cm higher ca A.D. 1050 (Medieval Warm Period) than ca
A.D. 1650 (Little Ice Age)."
A 10-inch
difference in sea level between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age
would confirm the existence of both events based purely on the effect each
had on sea levels.
In another sea level study
[31], Wang Wen
and Xie Zhiren of Nanjing University, China, analysed, more than 2000
records about tidal disasters that happened during the last 2000 years in
China. The times of the T'ang Dynasty
(AD 618 - 900) and the
Sung Dynasty (AD 960 - 1279)
share the peak periods of tidal disasters, while subsequent centuries saw
fewer such events. The response of the Chinese was to build sea walls to
hold back the sea, but only after the disasters had happened. They concluded
-
"Further
analysis shows that the temperature peaks of climatic fluctuations which
took place in the Medieval Warm Period and the following Little Ice Age
are coincident with the peaks of the tidal disaster intensity, while the
peaks of seawall construction lag behind. The research reveals the
relationship among the climate, sea level, tidal disaster and seawall
construction, namely, warm periods coincide with relatively high sea
level, the peak periods of tidal disaster, and the following peak periods
of seawall construction."
The Science that
Lost its Way
It is now clear
that the climate history of the northern hemisphere and the globe as a whole
bears no similarity whatever to that portrayed by Mann's `Hockey Stick'. It
is inconceivable that two major climatic events of the last millennium, the
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, could be observed at the same
points in time in such varied locations and with such a variety of proxies,
around the world and yet be missed by Mann's study. One possible explanation
for this discrepancy is that tree rings are inappropriate as temperature
proxies, something most dendrochronologists are reluctant to acknowledge.
The question
must then be asked, why do people who claim scientific credentials in the
field cling so tenaciously to a characterization of past climate that is so
patently false? Why was there so little challenge to the Mann theory among
his peers? Why is there collective denial about the role of the sun when
published and peer-reviewed evidence from solar scientists demonstrates a
clear relationship between solar change and climate change?
A booklet titled "On Being a
Scientist: Responsible Conduct in Research" [18],
published by the National Academy of Science in 1995, provides us with a
well-presented set of criteria to guide the conduct of scientists as they
navigate their way through the difficult choices they have to make in the
way they conduct themselves ethically.
"The
fallibility of methods is a valuable reminder of the importance of
skepticism in science. Scientific knowledge and scientific methods,
whether old or new, must be continually scrutinized for possible errors.
Such skepticism can conflict with other important features of science,
such as the need for creativity and for conviction in arguing a given
position. But organized and searching skepticism as well as an openness to
new ideas are essential to guard against the intrusion of dogma or
collective bias into scientific results."
Here, scepticism
is held up as a virtue, in contrast with the hostile treatment afforded to
sceptics in the climate sciences. But we also have this cogent warning
against dogma and collective bias intruding into a science. This caution is
directly applicable to those involved in climate change research as they
have demonstrated numerous times a collective bias in their work, a bias
that must inevitably contaminate the peer review process itself.
A common failing
of scientists, particularly those engaged in research which may have impacts
upon the public, is to reject any input from the public in the conduct of
their work. The peer review process provides an effective barrier to public
scrutiny of a science, as is the tendency to regard the public as people to
`be educated' instead of being learned from. The resulting intellectual
arrogance has the effect of making scientists into a sort of medieval
priesthood, keepers of secret and exclusive knowledge, and to be kept away
from prying public eyes. Such an attitude, common with many scientists, is
unpardonable given that most research is paid for by public money. This
however, does not prevent such scientists from adopting a proprietorial view
of their research results. The NAS booklet cautions -
"In fulfilling
these responsibilities scientists must take the time to relate scientific
knowledge to society in such a way that members of the public can make an
informed decision about the relevance of research. Sometimes researchers
reserve this right to themselves, considering non-experts unqualified to
make such judgments. But science offers only one window on human
experience. While upholding the honor of their profession, scientists must
seek to avoid putting scientific knowledge on a pedestal above knowledge
obtained through other means."
This is a direct
criticism of `scientism', a belief held by many scientists that knowledge
not acquired by professional scientists is knowledge not worth having.
Scientism is an affront to free people everywhere as it denies the right of
the public to judge the work of science, even where this work is funded from
taxpayer's money. It is a formula that holds scientists above criticism, and
unaccountable to anyone but their own peers. It is an anti-democratic view
of the world and is clearly opposed by the National Academy.
Yet in the
climate sciences, we have numerous examples of public criticism and concern
being dismissed with gratuitous statistics and spurious appeals to academic
authority.
Michael Mann
At the time he
published his `Hockey Stick' paper, Michael Mann held an adjunct faculty
position at the University of Massachusetts, in the Department of
Geosciences. He received his PhD in 1998, and a year later was promoted to
Assistant Professor at the University of Virginia, in the Department of
Environmental Sciences, at the age of 34.
He is now the Lead Author of
the `Observed Climate Variability and Change' chapter of the IPCC Third
Assessment Report (TAR-2000),
and a contributing author on several other chapters of that report. The
Technical Summary of the report, echoing Mann's paper, said: "The 1990s are likely to have been the
warmest decade of the millennium, and 1998 is likely to have been the
warmest year."
Mann is also now on the
editorial board of the `Journal of Climate' and was a guest editor for a
special issue of `Climatic Change'. He is also a `referee' for the journals
Nature, Science, Climatic Change, Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of
Climate, JGR-Oceans, JGR-Atmospheres, Paleo oceanography, Eos, International
Journal of Climatology, and NSF, NOAA, and DOE grant programs.
(In the `peer review' system of science, the
role of anonymous referee confers the power to reject papers that are
deemed, in the opinion of the referee, not to meet scientific standards).
He was appointed as a
`Scientific Adviser' to the U.S. Government
(White House OSTP)
on climate change issues.
Mann lists his `popular media
exposure' as including - "CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, CNN headline news, BBC, NPR,
PBS (NOVA/FRONTLINE),
WCBS, Time, Newsweek, Life, US News & World Report, Economist, Scientific
American, Science News, Science, Rolling Stone, Popular Science, USA Today,
New York Times, New York Times (Science Times),
Washington Post, Boston Globe, London Times, Irish Times, AP, UPI, Reuters,
and numerous other television/print media" [17].
Mann's career
highlights a serious problem with the modern climate sciences, namely the
`star' system where high-profile scientists are promoted swiftly to
influential positions in the industry. Such a star system reduces a science
to the level of Hollywood.
Conclusion
The evidence
from the `exhibits' is overwhelming. From all corners of the world, the
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age clearly shows up in a variety of
proxy indicators, proxies more representative of temperature than the
inadequate tree rings used by Michael Mann.
What is
disquieting about the `Hockey Stick' is not Mann's presentation of it
originally. As with any paper, it would sink into oblivion if found to be
flawed in any way. Rather it was the reaction of the greenhouse industry to
it - the chorus of approval, the complete lack of critical evaluation of the
theory, the blind acceptance of evidence which was so flimsy. The industry
embraced the theory for one reason and one reason only - it told them
exactly what they wanted to hear.
Proponents of the `Hockey
Stick' should recall George Orwell's `Nineteen Eighty-Four', a black SF
drama in which his fictional totalitarian regime used `memory holes' to
re-invent past history [22].
In this age of instant communication, there is no `memory hole' big enough
to overturn the historical truth about the Medieval Warm Period and Little
Ice Age.
References
[1] Biondi F.
et al., "July Temperature During the Second Millennium Reconstructed from
Idaho Tree Rings", Geophysical Research Letters, v.26, no.10, p.1445,
1998
[2] Cioccale
M., "Climatic Fluctuations in the Central Region of Argentina in the last
1000 Years", Quaternary International 62, p.35-37, 1999 (as reported by
the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change -
http://www.co2science.org/ )
[3] Cook et
al., "Climatic Change over the Last Millennium in Tasmania Reconstructed
from Tree-Rings", The Holocene, 2.3 pp.205-217, 1992
[4] Daly J.,
"The Surface Record: Global Mean Temperature and How it is Determined at
Surface Level" April 2000,
http://www.greeningearthsociety.org/Articles/2000/surface1.htm
[5] Daly J.,
"Testing the Waters: A Report on Sea Levels", June 2000
http://www.greeningearthsociety.org/Articles/2000/sea.htm
[6] deMenocal
P. et al. "Coherent High- and Low-Latitude Climate Variability During the
Holocene Warm Period", Science, v.288, p.2198-2202, Jun 23 2000
[7] Dullo, W.
et al., "Stable Isotope Record from Holocene Reef Corals, Western Indian
Ocean", Journal of Conference Abstracts v.4 no.1, Symposium B02,
http://www.campublic.co.uk/science/publications/JConfAbs/4/164.html
[8] Fligge &
Solanki, "The Solar Spectral Irradiance since 1700", Geophysical
Research Letters, v.27, No.14, p.2157, July 15 2000
[9] Hong Y. et
al., "Response of Climate to Solar Forcing Recorded in a 6000-year
delta18O Time-Series of Chines Peat Cellulose", The Holocene, v.10,
p.1-7, 2000
[10] Houghton,
J. et al. "Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change",
Cambridge Univ. Press, UK, 1995
[11] IPCC,
Third Assessment Report (draft), January 2000
[12] Keigwin
L.D., "The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period in the Sargasso Sea",
Science, v.274 pp.1504-1508, 1996
[13] Kuo-Yen
Wei et al, "Documenting Past Environmental Changes in Taiwan and Adjacent
Areas", Department of Geology, National Taiwan University, 1996.
http://www.gcc.ntu.edu.tw/gcc/research/igbp/1996_igbp/sec3-4/3-4.html
[14] Lean J.,
"Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum",
Geophysical Research Letters, v.27, no.16, p.2425, August 15 2000
[15] Magnuson
J. et al., "Historical Trends in Lake and River Ice Cover in the Northern
Hemisphere", Science, v.289, p.1743, 8 Sept 2000
[16] Mann M.E.
et al, "Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium:
Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations", AGU GRL, v.3.1, 1999
[17] Mann M.E.,
Personal Website -
http://www.people.virginia.edu/~mem6u
[18] National
Academy of Science, "On being a Scientist: Responsible Conduct in
Research", National Academy Press, 1995
[19] National
Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST), "Climate Change Impacts on the United
States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change" -
Overview document, USGCRP, June 2000
[20] National
Research Council, "Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change",
National Academy Press, 2000
[21] Nunez, M.,
"The Urban Heat Island: Some Aspects of the Phenomenon in Hobart",
University of Tasmania, ISBN 0-85901-121-6, 1979
[22] Orwell,
George, "Nineteen Eighty-Four", Penguin Books, London.
[23] Peru ice
core
http://academic.emporia.edu/aberjame/ice/lec19/fig19d.htm
[24] Svensmark
H., "Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate", Physical Review
Letters, v.81, no.22, p.5027, 30 Nov 1998
[25] ---, "A
1000-year Record of Temperature and Precipitation in the Sierra Nevada",
Quaternary Research, v.39, p.249-255, 1993.
[26] Tagami, Y.
Reconstruction of Climate in the Medieval Warm Period
http://edcgeo.edu.toyama-u.ac.jp/Geohome/IntN/Abs.htm
[27] Tyson,
P.D. et al., "The Little Ice Age and Medieval Warming in South Africa".
South African Journal of Science, v96. p.121-126, 2000
[28] van de
Plassche & van der Borg, "Sea level-climate correlation during the past
1400 yr", Free University Amsterdam & Utrecht University,
http://www.fys.ruu.nl/~adejong/radiocarbon_dating/Sea-level/sea_level-climate_correlation.htm
[29] Verschuren
D., "Rainfall and Drought in Equatorial East Africa during the past 1,100
Years", Nature v.403(6768) pp.410-414, 27 Jan 2000
[30] Villalba,
R., "Tree-ring and Glacial Evidence for the Medieval Warm Epoch and the
Little Ice Age in Southern South America". Climate Change, 26: 183-197,
1994
[31] Wang Wen &
Xie Zhiren, "Historical Sea Level Fluctuations in China: Tidal Disaster
Intensity and Sea Level Change", Nanjing University,
http://www.chinainfo.gov.cn/periodical/hhdxxb/hhdx99/hhdx9905/990509.htm
[32] Winter et
al. "Caribbean Sea Surface Temperatures: Two-to-Three Degrees Cooler than
Present During the Little Ice Age", Geophysical Research Letters, v.27,
20, p.3365, Oct 15 2000
[33] J T
Houghton, G J Jenkins, J J Ephraums, Eds,, "Climate Change; The IPCC
Scientific Assessment". 1990 . Cambridge University Press, p.202
The Hockey Stick A New Low in Climate Science
- 2 -
3 -
4
First published at
http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

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